Thursday 19th October 2017

    6 indicators that show the global economy's surprising reslience

    Brexit, Trump, Global Economic Doom? Not so fast, says Jim O'Neill, economist and former Goldman Sachs exec. He tracks 6 indicators from around the world, which taken together act as a reliable indicator for the near-term future of the global economy. They are all trending upward at the moment. The first indicator is weekly unemployment claims in the US, from which one can gauge the overall strength of the US economy. Next, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index provides a pretty good preview of the US economy for the next three-six months. A third indicator is a subcomponent of the same ISM survey: manufacturers' new orders and inventories. Looking beyond the US, a fourth indicator is the ratio of Chinese retail spending relative to industrial production (adjusted for inflation). These figures give us a glimpse of both cyclical trends and China's structural rebalancing away from exports and towards domestic consumption. A fifth indicator is South Korean trade data, which is consistently reported on the first day of each month after trades occur - faster than any other country. The last key indicator is the monthly Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany which contains useful cyclical data for Europe overall, owing to Germany's centrality in the continent's economy. More here