Friday 19th April 2019

    India will continue to rise, regardless of its politics!


    India is an important country. It will soon be the world’s most populous. It has the world’s fastest growing large economy. Not least, it remains a vibrant democracy. What happens in India is going to affect everybody on the planet. What, then, are its economic prospects? Has Narendra Modi, its prime minister, made a big difference? How important are the general elections due in the next few months?
    The decisive change in India’s economic trajectory came in 1991, when a foreign currency crisis caused a fundamental shift away from the "license Raj" towards a market-led economy, but one with a strong role for public ownership, and constant government interference. This is today's broad Indian consensus. Mr Modi has operated largely within it, albeit introducing significant further reforms, most of them uncontroversial - at least in principle, if less so in practice. The exception has been demonetisation - a shocking decision, taken on Mr Modi’s whim.

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