Friday 6th December 2019

    The future of Asia: Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalization


    Although doubtless there will be challenges ahead including the potential for financial risk, growing inequality, and institutional gaps relating to the rule of law and corruption, Asia's rise looks set to continue. Despite short-term concerns about trade tensions and the deceleration in China's growth rate, Asia's medium- and long-term prospects appear robust.

    Asia's rise to global significance is apparent in major macroeconomic indicators including GDP and consumption. In 2000, Asia accounted for 32 percent of global GDP in terms of purchasing power parity. This share increased to 42 percent in 2017 and is on course for a share of about 52 percent by 2040. In contrast, Europe's share declined from 26 to 22 percent, and North America from 25 to 18 percent from 2000 to 2017. In real GDP terms, Asia's share was 34 percent in 2017, and is expected to hit 46 percent by 2040. On consumption, in 2000 Asia accounted for 23 percent of the global total, rising to 28 percent in 2017. By 2040, Asia could account for 39 percent of global consumption.

    Global cross-border flows are shifting toward Asia on seven of eight dimensions - trade, capital, people, knowledge, transport, culture, resources, and the environment. The only flow that has declined is waste (environment).

    Continued here